Is there still a second season for the Celtics’ championship plan?

What do the Celtics have in their hands?

26 years, 27 years, 30 years, 31 years and 32 years' first round;

several second rounds and second rounds exchange rights. After a series of operations, the total salary of the Celtics was lower than that of the second rich man. Compared with the teams that cut off large salaries this summer to release space, the Celtics, which were originally considered to be extremely difficult to operate, not only successfully lowered their payroll, but basically retained the integrity of draft chips, but also had no dead space. Looking further, in the 26-27 season, if the Celtics let Anfini Simmons and Nian's contract expire naturally, the two will release a total of nearly 36 million space, and the Celtics will no longer have to pay luxury taxes.

Tatum's injury has had a very significant impact on his personal development and the Celtics' team-building plan. Without this, it would be hard to predict how the Celtics management would view the future of Posses and Holiday. When the Celtics knew that they would lack Tatum for most of the 25-26 season, the Celtics decisively adjusted their team-building route and came to the current situation.

This situation does not seem bad.

The Celtics actually avoided the punishment of the second rich line, reduced the luxury tax expenses, and did not fall into the championship dilemma they should have fallen into. Losing Posses and Holidays and leaving Horford, although he lost his combat power in the short term, he ruled out the two uneasy factors of injury and aging. It is never easy for champion teams to break up the core team, and this often means that the hidden natural aging, injury risks and premium signing in the core team will destroy them little by little. The oldest player for the Celtics is 31-year-old Derek White. The biggest injury risk is Tatum's recovery, holding a relatively complete draft pick and rational salary space, maintaining flexibility in future operations, and its refreshing level is already better than most teams in the league.

Of course, what is important may not be that the Celtics completed the "stable landing", but how to go later. In the 25-26 season, the Celtics will not think too much about winning. Holiday, Posses and Horford can be regarded as half of the Celtics' championship lineup, and this combat power gap is difficult to make up. The Celtics have a dual-core age of 27 and 28, and they are just playing. Even from the 26-27 season, they can make at least three years of plans to build a team around the two, so there is still plenty of time to reshape the lineup.

There is no need to speculate on the possible future operations of the Celtics, but if there is no unexpected young people's outbreak, the following two things will be decided in the future.

The first thing is Tatum's state after he recovers. There are two situations that are beneficial to Tatum's recovery. One is that he immediately underwent surgery after being injured in New York. The surgeon happened to be the one who repaired Durant back then, and the treatment was timely and reliable. Second, Tatum is only 27 years old, younger than Durant, who was 31 years old at the time. Although Tatum's jump shot level is far less than KD, he has a moderate dependence on explosive power, and the overall method of playing is a combination of body shape, confrontation and projection. Compared to Lillard in the previous issue, I am obviously more optimistic about Tatum's level after recovery.

Unfortunately, the serious injury obviously weakened Tatum's core competitiveness in becoming one of the top-tier stars - his ability to be a stubborn player. In the past four seasons, Tatum has played more than 35 minutes per game, and has played at least 72 regular season games per season. During this period, he has played a total of 71 playoff games, and his average playoff time is more than 40 minutes. Even if he is not as good as the Knicks' top player, as a core star in offense and defense, Tatum's advantage in providing cumulative contributions is obvious.

The major injury may cause the Celtics to re-examine the load on Tatum. In addition to time management, whether it will be frequently used as a meat shield center will also become a question mark. Will the Celtics make Tatum focus on one end of the court and focus only on important games? If he does this, Tatum will lose one functional bonus. If he wants to maintain his previous game influence, he must be more diligent in his goal skills. The

25-26 season is the beginning of the execution of Tatum's large contract. Larger contracts, potential load reductions, all mean lower cost-effectiveness in building a team around Tatum. The specific reduction depends on his status after returning.

However, we have shown in the first issue of this series that we will not consider too much about the impact of major injuries. In other words, this series' perception of player level is stuck in the past, and the players play the last minute of the season and what may happen afterwards is not considered. So, in terms of ratings, Tatum is still the original Tatum. I gave him the T1.5 level, which is the first team, which also respects the fact that he is a member of the first team of the All-Squad this season.

The second thing, Jaylen Brown's quality test. In the last game of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, Tatum was injured, Jaylen Brown made 8 of 23 shots and 8 mistakes, and he pulled a big shot. The following year, Jaylen Brown won the FMVP of the Eastern Conference Finals and the MVP of the Finals, and his reputation rose. In this playoffs, Brown performed better than 23 years after Tatum was injured, and G5 scored 26 points + 12 assists, leading the team to win a game.

It is still difficult to think that Brown has completely broken through his own limitations.

OK, what are Brown's limitations?

In a sense, Brown is a player who is both overrated and underrated. Everyone is familiar with the overestimation part. In the topic of Black Tatum, Brown is a huge and powerful existence, but he has been unable to enter the top three of the Celtics for many years (8th this year) and it is obviously difficult to support this view. Although the integrated influence data is not all, many players of the second-in-command type are poor in this data, which often does not prevent them from standing up and solving problems when they need it. For example, when the boss has a problem, they temporarily take over the boss's scepter, shoulder the heavy responsibility and can still maintain their performance, and even release more output..

Compared with ordinary old-fashioned teams, the Celtics have sufficient resources. Compared with those real "rich people", the Celtics' goods are not very rich. I don't doubt that Stevens can rebuild a competitive team in 1 to 2 years with the bullets in his hand alone. But in the 25-26 season, should the most reasonable way for the Celtics to deal with it?

Don't underestimate the departure of the three core rotations, and don't underestimate the influence of the number one star Tatum. Even if he may return at the end of the season, how should the Celtics deal with it without his long schedule?

Not considering Tatum, the Celtics have 2 players at the starting level and above the playoffs (Brown, White), one player at the starting level (Simmons Jr.), and Prichard, Nian and Hauser are at the rotation level and above the reliable rotation level. This configuration is not outstanding in the Eastern Conference. Apart from stabilizing the Nets, Wizards, Hornets and Bulls, it is hard to say that the Celtics have an advantage over other Eastern Conference teams. The Celtics have limited youth talent, and their growth is less than that of teams like the Raptors and Pistons. With the lineup being logically complete (both developer and space), Mazula may be able to train combat power better than paper lineups, but it is still not easy to enter the playoffs.

Will you stand out from the playoffs, or do you want Jaylen and White to play smart ankles after playing well for two months? Watching Symen and Prichard lead the team with two guns, while increasing their value, while competing for the deputy squad leader?

A few years ago, a champion team that suffered a serious injury and ran away in rotation chose to open the swing. Although the results of opening the pendulum eventually became a joke, you can really squat down and accumulate energy during the transition season. Squatting down is not about giving up, but about making better preparations for a better future.

source:7m vn cn